ODNI Preliminary Assessment: UAP (June 2021)

Each entry is one claim, quoted word for word. These are extracted statements, not the full record: the original document has everything.

1. 01
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   ODNIOfficial FindingCertainty: Asserted

   “Preliminary Assessment: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena”

   UAP CountNational SecurityAirspace SafetyInvestigation Methodology

   Claim type

   Official Finding

   Certainty

   Asserted

   Specificity

   0.70

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2. 02
   ODNIPolicy StatementCertainty: Asserted

   “This preliminary report is provided... in response to the provision in Senate Report 116-233”

   National SecurityInvestigation MethodologyInteragency Coordination

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3. 03
   ODNIStatistical ClaimCertainty: Asserted

   “The dataset described in this report is currently limited primarily to U.S. Government reporting of incidents occurring from November 2004 to March 2021”

   UAP CountSensor DataHistorical Programs

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4. 04
   ODNIAssessmentCertainty: Asserted

   “Various forms of sensors that register UAP generally operate correctly and capture enough real data to allow initial assessments, but some UAP may be attributable to sensor anomalies”

   Sensor DataInvestigation Methodology

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5. 05
   ODNI Preliminary Assessment Executive SummaryAssessmentCertainty: Asserted

   “The limited amount of high-quality reporting on unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) hampers our ability to draw firm conclusions about the nature or intent of UAP.”

   Reporting MechanismsInvestigation Methodology

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6. 06
   UAPTFMethodology NoteCertainty: Asserted

   “the UAPTF concentrated its review on reports that occurred between 2004 and 2021, the majority of which are a result of this new tailored process to better capture UAP events through formalized reporting”

   Reporting MechanismsInvestigation MethodologyUAP Count

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7. 07
   ODNI Preliminary Assessment Executive SummaryAssessmentCertainty: Asserted

   “Most of the UAP reported probably do represent physical objects given that a majority of UAP were registered across multiple sensors, to include radar, infrared, electro-optical, weapon seekers, and visual observation.”

   Sensor DataUAP Count

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8. 08
   ODNI Preliminary Assessment Executive SummaryOfficial FindingCertainty: Asserted

   “In a limited number of incidents, UAP reportedly appeared to exhibit unusual flight characteristics.”

   UAP CountSensor Data

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9. 09
   ODNI Preliminary Assessment Executive SummaryAssessmentCertainty: Asserted

   “These observations could be the result of sensor errors, spoofing, or observer misperception and require additional rigorous analysis.”

   Sensor DataInvestigation Methodology

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10. 10
    ODNI Preliminary Assessment Executive SummaryAssessmentCertainty: Asserted

    “There are probably multiple types of UAP requiring different explanations based on the range of appearances and behaviors described in the available reporting.”

    UAP CountInvestigation Methodology

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11. 11
    ODNI Preliminary Assessment Executive SummaryOfficial FindingCertainty: Asserted

    “Our analysis of the data supports the construct that if and when individual UAP incidents are resolved they will fall into one of five potential explanatory categories: airborne clutter, natural atmospheric phenomena, USG or U.S. industry developmental programs, foreign adversary systems, and a catchall "other" bin.”

    Investigation MethodologyForeign AdversaryUnknown Origin

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12. 12
    ODNI Preliminary Assessment Executive SummaryOfficial FindingCertainty: Asserted

    “UAP clearly pose a safety of flight issue and may pose a challenge to U.S. national security.”

    Airspace SafetyNational Security

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13. 13
    ODNI Preliminary Assessment Executive SummaryAssessmentCertainty: Asserted

    “Safety concerns primarily center on aviators contending with an increasingly cluttered air domain.”

    Airspace Safety

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14. 14
    ODNI Preliminary Assessment Executive SummaryAssessmentCertainty: Asserted

    “UAP would also represent a national security challenge if they are foreign adversary collection platforms or provide evidence a potential adversary has developed either a breakthrough or disruptive technology.”

    National SecurityForeign Adversary

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15. 15
    ODNI Preliminary Assessment Executive SummaryRecommendationCertainty: Asserted

    “Consistent consolidation of reports from across the federal government, standardized reporting, increased collection and analysis, and a streamlined process for screening all such reports against a broad range of relevant USG data will allow for a more sophisticated analysis of UAP that is likely to deepen our understanding.”

    Reporting MechanismsInvestigation MethodologyInteragency Coordination

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16. 16
    ODNI Preliminary Assessment Executive SummaryAssessmentCertainty: Asserted

    “Some of these steps are resource-intensive and would require additional investment.”

    Investigation Methodology

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17. 17
    UAPTFStatistical ClaimCertainty: Asserted

    “144 reports originated from USG sources. Of these, 80 reports involved observation with multiple sensors.”

    UAP CountSensor Data

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18. 18
    UAPTFStatistical ClaimCertainty: Asserted

    “In 18 incidents, described in 21 reports, observers reported unusual UAP movement patterns or flight characteristics.”

    UAP CountAirspace Safety

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19. 19
    UAPTFOfficial FindingCertainty: Asserted

    “We were able to identify one reported UAP with high confidence. In that case, we identified the object as a large, deflating balloon. The others remain unexplained.”

    Investigation MethodologyUnknown Origin

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20. 20
    UAPTFAssessmentCertainty: Asserted

    “UAP documented in this limited dataset demonstrate an array of aerial behaviors”

    UAP CountSensor Data

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21. 21
    UAPTFStatistical ClaimCertainty: Asserted

    “11 reports of documented instances in which pilots reported near misses with a UAP”

    Airspace SafetyNational Security

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